Estimation of the effect of climate change on the flows of the medium-high basin of the Piura River using GCM from CMIP6
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54139/revinguc.v29i3.290Keywords:
Climate change, Piura River, GCM, CMIP6Abstract
The objective of the present investigation was to analyze the Global Climate Models (GCM) of the CMIP6 to determine the model that allows obtaining values of precipitation and temperature very similar to those registered in the PISCO grid data for the medium-high basin of the Piura River. , and based on said model, estimate the hydrological impacts of climate change on the flows of the intermediate future (2015-2100) that allow identifying the existence of areas vulnerable to flooding in the sector adjacent to the Puente Sánchez Cerro gauging point. Of the 58 GCM, 14 were analyzed for the SSP5-8.5 scenario of the CMIP6 that have information for the study area, obtaining records of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, which were corrected by the Statistical Downscaling methodology with the Quantile-mapping procedure. Said information was contrasted with the PISCO data (1981-2016), and the SWAT hydrological model was used to obtain the flows at the Puente Sánchez Cerro Gauging Point, and compare them with the PECHP data (1981-2016).
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